Good Riddance Hendry. Quade, You Can Stay. Cubs 2012 Outlook.

Pretty much sums it up.

Mr. Jim Hendry. I am one happy Cubs fan that you’ve made your way out of town; however, you can leave the head coach you hired around for a while to help rebuild the team. You were fired July 22nd, but helped the team get through the trade deadline and the only move you made was to move Kosuke Fukudome, for a couple of mediocre relievers? Nice work chief. Glad you stuck around for another month; you helped out the team _so_ much! Alright, alright, I will admit, I’m impressed that a good number of their draft picks got signed including first rounder Javier Baez, Trevor Gretzky, and Shawon Dunston Jr. (can anybody say SHAWON-O-METER!!!). I will give you that and that only. Only because the Ricketts family allowed you to go over slotted bonus demands and spend on the players, they were able to be signed. More players needed to be moved off the roster to make room to audition the young kids in the minor league system.

I could go on and on about how Hendry hurt the Cubs over the years, but I don’t want to bore to death. He made some good moves, plenty of bad moves, and couple of head scratchers. Sure, he helped create some playoff teams, back-to-back teams at that, which has been no easy feat for the Cubs over the years. He’s often traded off a lot of what little farm talent they had for a mediocre veteran to graze the pastures of Wrigley to ease into the decline of their career.

Randy Bush, the assistant General Manager promoted to interim GM, should do more than a fine job finishing out the season. I truly hope he calls up a few young kids to get a taste of what is to come for them. I’d like D.J. LeMahieu, Brett Jackson (tearing up AAA), Rebel Ridling (.304 20 HRs 74 RBIs at AA), Ryan Flaherty, and maybe even Josh Vitters to get some work with the big league team this year. As you may or may not have noticed, these are all fielders and not pitchers. The pitchers in the farm system are either not ready, or not good enough at AAA. It’s been struggle for the pitchers this season, especially in Des Moines. Kyle Smit, Nicholas Struck, Jay Jackson, and Robert Whitenack (assuming he comes back from Tommy John surgery) all have a shot at contributing in the years to come, but their time is not right now. The Cubs are doing fine in regards to their minor league development, but it will get better with a new GM in town next season.

The Ricketts family has said they’re going to shop outside the organization for the new GM. There are a few interesting GMs that could be able to be had. Billy Beane, Brian Cashman, Theo Epstein and others have had their names tossed as possible candidates. One thing for will be for certain; the Ricketts will be hiring a big time, big name GM to replace Hendry. Think about the potential with the team, and to be the famed GM that ends the Cubs drought as World Series champions. I would like to point out hat Mr. Epstein was the man who broke “The Babe Ruth Curse”. Who’s the man for the job? I’m not for sure. All I know is the Ricketts want to win and they’ll pay to have the best available GM on the market to lead the team.

This all leads me a bigger point i need to make. Mike Quade was hired this past season to be the full time skipper of the Cubs for the next three seasons. Will he be fired at the end of the season and join Hendry on the unemployment line? I sure hope not. With a few exceptions Quade has done a fine job managing this band of misfits and under achieving veterans. Have you ever seen the movie “The Money Pit” with Tom Hanks? Yeah, that’s the Cubs current roster. If only could cover up Alfonso Soriano with a rug and trap Tom Hanks in his hole. That would make my day. Carlos Zambrano can be the pissed off raccoon in the dumbwaiter. There have been a few growing pains with Starlin Castro, including the recent lapse in concentration when he wasn’t paying attention when James Russell started the inning. Quade can’t help all the errors the Cubs have had this year. He’s only been out managed  few times, and left a pitcher out one batter to many a few times. The biggest mistake was the squeeze play that Quade missed. There hasn’t been many times where I didn’t agree with his call to the pen, or letting a pitcher get that last out.

As a baseball mind, he’s up there with the best. Prior to the managing the Cubs, he managed almost 2,000 games in the minors, so managing a ball club is nothing new to him. He gets on his players when they’re not playing well a la the benching of Castro earlier this week. I sure hope he finishes out his contract, and helps these younger players coming up in the next two season. In the end, he’s going to be the rebuilding coach, and probably won’t have a good win/loss record as the Cubs manager, but he’ll have laid a lot of the ground work for the seasons to come. I would imagine that after Quade will be another big name manager. Will it be Ryne Sandberg? I’m not sure, but I would support that decision. Ryno would have to be willing to come back after getting the big snub when Quade got hired this season.

The last thing I want to address is the future of the Cubs and how I would personally go about things. Get these veterans on the field out of town at any cost. Soriano is going to make his money whether he’s batting or not. Bring him off the bench or to platoon in left. He’s not an everyday player anymore. Even though Marlon Byrd is the leader of the team, he should be moved in order to get a player or two for him. He’s been fantastic for the team, and has instilled his hustle work ethic into some other players on the team. If he’s not moved, he could be a great mentor for Brett Jackson, who should be manning center next season. Tyler Colvin can platoon left with Soriano, and Byrd can play right.

For the love of Pete, improve the pitching staff. First and foremost, get rid of Zambrano. I don’t care if you have to pay him $18 Million to sit on his couch and email his family enough so it hurts his forearms. He’s not a positive player on the roster anymore and doesn’t contribute at all. Matt Garza was a step in the right direction, but there still need to be 1-2 more pitchers added to make the rotation better. I like Ryan Dempster (as a number 3), Garza, Andrew Cashner, and potentially Randy Wells (as a number 5). The pen isn’t horrible, but could use some better arms. I like keeping Kerry Wood around as long as he can compete, and many know about my man-crush for Sean Marshall. Outside of maybe five to seven pitchers, their pitching is pretty thin in the minors. They will need to find somebody outside the organization to fill this hole.

Aramis Ramirez will probably finish out his contract next season with the Cubs. Actually, this is a good decision. Josh Vitters hasn’t quite developed like the team would want, but he’s been better this season, and could just need one more season before he’s ready for the hot corner. It makes no sense to try to get a replacement long term when Vitters is still probably your third baseman of the future.

Darwin Barney. I love the kid. He’s actually my second favorite player behind Sean Marshall. He plays the game very hard, and plays the game the right way. I just don’t think he’s got what it’s going to take to be an everyday player for the years to come and statistically contribute to the team. He doesn’t have much power and he doesn’t walk all that much. If the team gets their production from other players in the lineup, he could settle into a fine bottom of the order hitter. Realistically, he’ll fall into a utility role when someone better comes along.

Get rid of all this AAAA players playing at Iowa. Lou Montanez, Bryan LaHair and Scott Moore, I’m looking at you guys. There are better, younger players you’re blocking from progressing up the ladder. Yeah, yeah, yeah, LaHair is batting over .330 with a MiLB leading 34 home runs and 100 RBIs. He’s a AAAA Hall of Famer. I would rather see Ridling called-up next month over LaHair.

Finally, if you’re going to go after a big named player to take over at first base, please, please choose Prince Fielder over Albert Pujols. Fielder is left handed, cheaper, younger, and almost as good, power number wise, as Pujols. For being a tank of man, Fielder, has been more durable than Pujols over the past few seasons. Seriously, how is Pujols going to be worth $30 million when he’s 41? Let’s get real people. I personally, want to give Ridling and Justin Bour a shot before blocking the two completely with a big name signing.

Wrigley Field Isn’t a Dump. The Team Might Be

A recent stop to Wrigley Field by the crew of Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN did much to again dispel the notion that the place is more a dump than it is a shrine of baseball. The stadium had come under recent scrutiny as something that needed to be replaced. Let’s hope that idea doesn’t happen soon as we’ve lost enough landmarks as it is. The emphasis on the stadium by the Sunday Night crew was merciful because it lessened the scrutiny that should be put on the team and not the stadium. Nothing is going right for the Cubs and we’ve heard talk about injuries to people like Marlon Byrd and Darwin Barney. But injuries occur for every team. The contention of this writer is that the stadium shouldn’t be torn down and rebuilt. The Cubs, though, perhaps are another story.

There are so many cheap shots this writer could take. The owner has a name that calls to mind a childhood disease. The field is named after childhood dentists’ worst nightmare. But we’ll try to take the high road here. The obvious fact is that this team needs to be torn down to begin again. Lou Piniella obviously lost the team last year. The Cubs had a brutal start. This writer railed from the outskirts that old Lou needed to go. He was the problem. And sure enough, the old guy did step down and Mike Quade took over and the team took off. But here it is a year later with that same Mike Quade and the Cubs are pretty much where they were a year ago with Sweet Lou. And Buster Olney of ESPN.com is hinting that Quade has lost some of the clubhouse.

None of those facts and innuendos add up to good news for the Cubs. If a certain segment of the team has been “lost” by Quade after Piniella “lost” the clubhouse last year, perhaps it’s time to get rid of the members in the clubhouse. Let them go poison some other teams for a change. Part of the Cubs’ story is about sunk costs. There are enormous contracts to Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano. What good are those three if you have a team that is kicking its legs like a turtle turned upside down? Sunk costs are sunk costs. You aren’t going to get rid of the costs no matter what, but you can get rid of the players.

Alfonso Soriano will make $18 million this year…and next year…and the year after that…and the year after that. He was worth around $7 million last year and will have to hustle in the second half to earn that this season. He is a sunk cost. It isn’t going to get better. Why not admit that and get rid of the guy. Plenty of teams could use a DH in the American League if the Cubs were paying the tab. Perhaps some of those teams would even give a marginal prospect or two. The Cubs aren’t going anywhere anyway. Get rid of him.

Aramis Ramirez is getting paid anywhere from $14.6 million to $16 million this year. He might be an eight or nine million dollar player this season. There is a club option for him next year. There is no way the club will pick that up. From many accounts, the guy doesn’t try very hard. There are too many whispers about him to not think there is something behind those whispers. Ramirez has a $1 million clause in his contract if he is traded. That complicates the Cubs’ prospects of making a deal this year. If there are no takers. Then release him. He’s a sunk cost anyway.

Carlos Zambrano is a sunk cost. He’s getting $18 million or thereabouts this year and will make the same next year. He’s really worth closer to $10 million. He’s only 30 years old and probably has the highest trade value of the three players we’ve talked about. It’s possible that a team would take a chance on him and give up some value to get him. That should be encouraged as much as possible. It’s time for his era to end in Chicago.

The pain involved with getting rid of three anchors of your team is finding people to take their place. But if you are fallen and can’t get up, that pain can’t be lessened by keeping players who make too much money and may be a drag to your team in the clubhouse and on the field. Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney are a step in the right direction and show what can happen by getting younger. The drawback is that those two players lack some skills needed to improve the Cubs (like getting on base by being patient at the plate). The bottom line is that the people they have can’t or won’t get the job done.

The Cubs need to concentrate on pitching and defense. Matt Garza has been a disappointment. But at least he was a step in the right way of thinking. He has a big time arm and that’s what the Cubs need to start stockpiling. They also need to fix their defense. The Cubs are dead last in the majors in fielding efficiency and fielding percentage. That’s a deadly double-whammy. Ridding yourself of Soriano and Ramirez will not hurt there either.

The one constant through all these long-term signings and through the way too many years of stuttering is the general manager. He’s been the constant in this picture since July 5, 2002. He certainly is a love him or hate him kind of guy. And it’s hard to argue with the Cubs winning three division titles under Hendry. But since 2008, the team has foundered without any break in the gloom except for their second half run last year. Perhaps there needs to be a change in direction. Perhaps it is time to say that Hendry has had his chance and it hasn’t worked out. That’s business and that’s life. These Cubs…these misfits with big wallets are his. If this writer was Mr. Ricketts, the mandate would be to get rid of the high priced and low productivity and get as much as you can for them. How well that assignment goes would be the win/loss variables for job security.

We hear a lot about the Cub fans. We hear about their loyalty and about the diehard nature of their yearly existence. They deserve at least some indication that the problems are understood and that a plan is in place to undo the mistakes of the past. Those fans know that the bottom line is that this club is bloated and beached like a whale and even if Quade was Captain Ahab, it’s going to be impossible to get that whale back off the beach.

-William J. Tasker, a/k/a The Flagrant Fan, a knowledgeable and passionate baseball fan that can be followed on twitter and found writing daily at his blog

2011 NL Central Preview

Posted on March 27, 2011 by mikemcginnis

1. Cincinnati Reds

The Good: The Reds have a solid combo of strong bats and strong starting pitching. Bronson Arroyo, Edison Volquez, Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake form a formidible rotation. While the offense is spearheaded by triple crown candidate/MVP Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce. Two things the Reds offense has is power with some speed.

The Bad: The back end of the bullpen is a cause for concern. Francisco Cordero has logged a lot of innings the past few years and looked like he was tired the 2nd half of last year. The Dusty Baker effect once again if you ask me. I am not buying all the hype surrounding Aroldis Chapman. Chapman can throw 115MPH for all I am concerned but, his control, mechanics and lack of developed secondary pitches raise some flags. Realize, the Reds are now expected to win and will be targeted by other teams, that changes the perspective for the young Reds a lot. Another crucial question: Can Scott Rolen stay healthy and productive for 2 straight years?

What to Look For: The continued development Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, Edison Volquez, Travis Wood and Mike Leake will determine how far the Reds will progress this season. The Reds are following the right path in terms of a successful long term plan.

Projection: The Reds definitely seem to be trying to follow the Phillies blueprint: A solid starting rotation, good defense and plenty of power bats with some speed. The Reds weren’t a fluke last year and this year they should prove that.

92-70 (1st Place)

Milwaukee Brewers

The Good: The Brewers made massive upgrades to a pitching rotation that sorely needed it. 2009 1-2 starters Yovanni Gallardo and Randy Wolf get bumped down to 3 and 4 to make room for new ace Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. These were two very high impact moves by the Brew Crew and I am sure Marcum and Greinke will benefit from pitching in the NL and having strong offensive support. While being dominated by right handers, the Brewers can score runs. The offensive attack of Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Casey McGehee and Rickie Weeks is very impressive.

The Bad: The Brewers defense can be down right dreadful and that will cost them some games. John Axford, Zach Braddock, 41 year old Takashi Saito and Kameron Loe will have to shore up a bullpen that had plenty of leaks last season. Another critical question: Can Carlos Gomez be an everyday CF?

What to Look For: If the right deal comes along would the Brewers deal Prince Fielder and move Mat Gamel to 1B? That should be interesting to see. Also, the development of John Axford and Zach Braddock to the late inning roles is something the Brewers need to take shape if they want to be serious contenders.

Projection: If the Reds falter the Brewers are most likely taking the division. The Brewers are taking their shot this year realizing it most likely is their last with big slugging 1B Prince Fielder. Should be an exciting summer in Milwaukee.

89-73 (2nd place)

Chicago Cubs

The Good: The Cubs offense should be able to produce runs with the likes of Aramis Ramirez, Starlin Castro, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena, Marlon Byrd, Geovany Soto and Tyler Colvin. The Cubs front 3 starting pitchers of Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster give their fans plenty of reason to think they can contend and Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner are not bad options out of the 4 and 5 spots.

The Bad: The Cubs have been awful at situational hitting the past few years and adding more strikeouts with Carlos Pena will not help. Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez looked old and worn out last year which is not a good sign. Middle relief was a disaster for the Cubs last year and outside of Carlos Marmol the closer, there are too many question marks for the Cubs.

What to Look For: Will be interesting to see how Cubs skipper Mike Quade is able to keep the usually hotheaded Carlos Zambrano and Matt Garza on track. This is a transition year for the Cubs. I strongly believe Carlos Pena is a 1 year rental before the Cubs land Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau or Prince Fielder to play 1B.

Prediction: The Cubs will shine and have their moments but, unless they get some critical big hits, cut down on the strikeouts and get decent middle relief help they are only a decent team not a good team.

84-78 (3rd Place)

St. Louis Cardinals

The Good: The offense should be OK considering it has Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Colby Rasmus at its core. Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook and Jaime Garcia should help steady a questionable rotation.

The Bad: Plenty. Adam Wainwright and his Cy Young Award type numbers are gone for the year and more importantly, this could be Albert Pujols last year as a Cardinal. This is a major year of flux for the Cards who could also deal free agent to be Chris Carpenter at the trade deadline if they fall out of contention. Is RF Lance Berkman still an everyday player? What kind of production do the Cardinals get from the middle infield of Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker? Can the Cardinals recover from losing Adam Wainwright for an entire season?

What to Look For: If Carpenter, Tony LaRussa and Pujols leave within the next year the Cards could be in a full blown rebuilding phase. Dave Duncan is one of the best pitching coaches ever with all the pitching projects he has taken on and transformed. Duncan will have to use all of his skills this season to help the Crads overcome the loss of Adam Wainwright. Fireballer Carlos Martinez may arrive into the bullpen for the Cardinals this summer.

Projection: It already looks like this could be a rough year for the Cardinals will all the questions left unanswered. Where does this team go past 2011 is the most important question of them all.

79-83 (4th Place)

Houston Astros

The Good: The Astros GM Ed Wade did a heck of a job rebuilding the core of this team midseason in 2009 and finally has the Astros younger and cheaper then they have been in a while. 1B Brett Wallace, RF Hunter Pence and 3B Chris Johnson help give some much needed youth into the Astros everyday lineup. They may not jump out at you but, J.A. Happ, Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris give Houston a decent starting rotation. Closer Brandon Lyon, Fernando Abad, Wilton Lopez,  and Mark Melancon are pretty decent options out of the bullpen too.

The Bad: The Astros are still a ways off in terms of getting younger better position players and are stuck with some stopgap solution players in their middle infield. Also, the Astros are saddled with the bloated Carlos Lee contract. Losing young catcher Jason Castro for the year to a knee injury is a blow not easily recovered from either.

What to Look For: The Astros can only pray that Carlos Lee has a big first half and can convince someone crazy or desperate enough to take him off the Astros hands even for half price.

Projection: When you have pitching you can win or in the Astros case, be representable. The Astros need to find position players but, are heading in the right direction with their relatively young pitching.

73-89 (5th Place)

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Good: Well, at least the Pirates have some good talent in the field eveyday and should score some runs with CF Andrew McCutchen, 3B Pedro Alvarez, 2B Neil Walker and LF Jose Tabata. James McDonald and Ross Ohlendorf give the Pirates a prayer that they can give up less than 5-10 runs at least 2 days out of the week. Evan Meek, Chris Resop and Joel Hanrahan provide some actual relief for a bullpen that’s pretty rotten.

The Bad: Are you kidding me?!?!? Well, the worst is the ownership who cares nothing about the franchise or the fan base because they maintain the lowest MLB payroll while turning one of the highest profits. Pathetic. As a Pirates player you are encouraged to play your best because the sooner you do the sooner you are traded from the team. Hard to believe the Pirates share the same city as one of the NFL’s all time elite/successful franchises and a very successful NHL franchise as well. The Pirates pitching staff was abysmal last year. When you have the worst team ERA and you are not in the AL or playing half the time in Cincinnatti, Houston or Philadelphia (3 great band boxes) you have major issues. Oh, yeah, and if that was not bad enough, the Pirates have plenty of problems catching and throwing the baseball consistently in the field too.

What to Look For: To see the Pirates roll out a borderline MLB team and not lose a 100 games. MLB should assume ownership of this franchise because the Pirates front office is a disgrace.

Projection: See the past 18 years. Somehow I think they will only lose 98 games this year. Yet, I cannot substantiate why.

64-98 (6th Place)