Which Fantasy Players to Trade Away…And to Trade For

Draft Them Then Trade Them – These players start out quickly, then slow down during the season.  These are the players to “sell high”.

Random Predictions – NL

Continuing on from yesterday’s AL Predictions are my NL predictions. I honestly cannot wait to see the reactions when I tell everyone that…

Atlanta Braves – Nate McLouth is going to revert to 2009 form and go 20/20 with a .350 OBP. Craig Kimbrel will save 20+ games and strike out 100+ as part of the best relief squad in the Majors. Chipper Jones will hit .300 in his final season. Mike Minor will replace Brandon Beachy as the 5th starter by June.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Russell Branyan will set a career high by hitting 35 or more homeruns this season. That’s right! All he needs is playing time and I predict he will gain 3B eligibilty. Joe Saunders will have an ERA north of 5.00. David Hernandez will lead the team in saves with less than 20.

Chicago Cubs – Tyler Colvin will get 500+ plate appearances but will not hit more than 25 homers. There will be more “head case” headlines about Matt Garza than there will be about Carlos Zambrano who will be the better pitcher of the two this year.

Cincinnati Reds – 2010 was more Brandon Phillips norm going forward and he will continue a decline offensively to the tune of .260/.320/.420 at best. The starting rotation will be called overrated by September. Drew Stubbs will be more valuable when factoring ADP than B.J. Upton in fantasy. Jay Bruce will hit 30+ homers but lose defensive value and not be more valuable than he was last year according to fWAR. Aroldis Chapman will finish with less than 5 saves and an ERA above-4.00.

Colorado Rockies – Troy Tulowitzki will win the MVP and be worth close to 8.0 fWAR. Dexter Fowler will break out this year. Jose Lopez still will not hit and be a terrible defender and Ty Wigginton will club 20+ homers. Jason Hammel will finally match his performance with his FIP and post an ERA below-4.00.

Florida Marlins – Mike Stanton will hit 35 homeruns and be very humble about it. Anibal Sanchez will pitch 200+ innings of 3.25 or lower ERA and 175+ strikeouts. Omar Infante will hit closer to his career slash-line of .274/.319/.395 than his last two year’s .316/.359/.408. The 3B position will struggle to combine for a positive fWAR.

Houston Astros – Wilton Lopez will end up with double-digit saves. Brett Wallace will hit .285/.345/.450 and give the Astros hope for the future. The shortstop position will the weakest in the league offensively. Jordan Lyles will be up and be their best pitcher after the trade deadline.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Juan Uribe will set another career high in homers with 25 this season. Jonathan Broxton may lose the closer role but he will still strike out 90+ with an ERA below-3.00. Matt Kemp will be worth +5.0 fWAR or better. Left field will be a revolving door that will never stop and be lucky to produce at a higher level than replacement. A.J. Ellis is the best catcher on the roster but will see the least amount of time.

Milwaukee Brewers – Shaun Marcum will mail a thank you card to the Blue Jays for trading him out of the AL East and will post 200+ innings of 3.25 or lower ERA and 175+ strikeouts. Carlos Gomez and Nyjer Morgan will combine for a wRC of 85 or lower. Jonathan Lucroy and George Kottaras will combine to hit 20 homers.

New York Mets – Carlos Beltran will reach 500 PAs and hit .280/.370/.470 or better. Angel Pagan will again be worth more than 4.0 fWAR. Francisco Rodriguez will not meet his Games Finished clause wheter he finishes the year out with the Mets or not. The Mets will have a fire sale in July and post a better record in the 2nd half and play “spoiler” to postseason contenders.

Philadelphia Phillies – Ryan Howard continues his Cecil Fielder impersonation and hits worse than he did in 2010. Ben Francisco will hit 20 homers and steal 15 bases. Roy Halladay will post even better numbers than last year.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Andrew McCutchen will hit 20 homers and steal 40 bases. Joel Hanrahan will save 30 games and strike out 100+. James McDonald will be the only starting pitcher with more than 2.0 fWAR and he will have higher than 3.0 fWAR.

San Diego Padres – Tim Stauffer will log 175+ innings of sub-3.50 ERA and 125+ strikeouts. Brad Hawpe will lose his starting job by mid-June and struggle to hit above .250 with little-to-no power. Jason Bartlett will hit at least .285/.345/.425 and steal 20+ bases.

San Francisco Giants – Aubrey Huff will get off to a slow start and everyone will scream for Brandon Belt to get playing time. Which he will… in June, and contend for the Rookie of the Year Award by hitting close to .300 with 15+ homers. Jonathan Sanchez will be the best pitcher on the team.

St. Louis Cardinals – Colby Rasmus will hit 30+ homers and steal 15+ bases. Lance Berkman will bounce back to hit .275/.375/.475 with 20+ homers. Kyle McClellan will log 175+ innings of sub-4.00 ERA with 125+ strikeouts. Jason Motte will save 10+ games and record 70+ strikeouts.

Washington Nationals – Michael Morse will hit more homers than Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche. Livan Hernandez will post an ERA north of 5.00 and allow 225+ hits in less than 200 innings. Matt Stairs will hit a homerun for the Nats, his 12th different team.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at his other site Figure Filbert and on twitter at @FigureFilbert

NL/AL Most Improved Lineups

After off-season moves this past season, two teams come to the forefront, in my mind, on who became the most improved in the two different leagues.

(July 19, 2009 – Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images North America)

In the American League, the Baltimore Orioles made a meandering of changes in their lineup this off-season to try to support their young and talented pitching staff. The major off-season acquisitions included Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, and Vladimir Guerrero. All four of those players have the power to hit 20 home runs, maybe with the exception of Hardy. He did however hit over 20 in the ’07 and ’08 seasons. The only problem in going this route, you’re not planning for the future. None of these four players will be with the team for more than a couple of years at most.

The interesting aspect what these players bring is the protection that Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Luke Scott gain in the line up. Lee doesn’t have the same power he once had after his wrist injury, but is still a dangerous hitter. Reynolds will probably continue to strike out at an alarming rate, but will probably still hit 35+ home runs in hitter friendly Camden Yards. He also has to deal with the better pitching in the AL East compared to the much weaker NL West, which could be a problem. Junk ball hitting specialist, Guerrero should be a dangerous hitter in this line up as well. He’s thrived in the DH role with Texas last season, and I expect him to keep the same momentum going. If you figure in a healthy Brian Roberts at the top of the lineup, and a young Matt Wieters behind the plate, it could rival any team in the AL as one of the best lineups.

With the young pitching staff, the team is going to have to put up a lot of runs in order to help these young guys “take their lumps” while they gain more experience. Brian Matusz is poised to have a break out year, and Jeremy Guthrie could have a winning record with his normal ERA in the low fours or high threes. Between young pitchers Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and to an extent Brad Bergesen, with veteran Justin Duchscherer could make for an adaquete rotation with a very high ceiling. I’m not expecting a Cy Young winner to emerge from the group, but they could win a number of games with amount of runs the line up could mash in.

Potential Lineup:

Brian Roberts – 2B
Adam Jones – CF
Luke Scott – LF
Vladimir Gurrero – DH
Nick Markakis – RF
Derrek Lee – 1B
Mark Reynolds – 3B
Matt Wieters – C
J.J. Hardy – SS

It’s pretty hard to place all those power hitters in the lineup while trying to make the most sense. This will give coach Buck Showalter the flexibility to have a lot different lineup configurations depending on the pitching match up.  The only hitter on the team that hit over 20 home runs last season was Luke Scott. He should be poised to do the same, and drive in plenty of runs himself. This lineup might be one of the most balanced lineups I’ve ever seen as well. You have two switch hitters, five right handed hitters, and two left handed hitters. Fact of the matter is, they’re also in one of the best divisions in all of baseball. Between the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and even the Blue Jays, I just don’t foresee them making the playoffs, but they’re going to surprise a lot of people this season. Will they make it out of the cellar? There’s a really good possibility that occurs.

On the NL side of things, the Washington Nationals added some players that give slugger Ryan Zimmerman some extra protection that could even take him up to a next level (if there is one for him). The additions of Jayson Werth and Adam Laroche will add 40-50 home runs from those two batters alone. Werth of  course was the super-star contract acquisition this season, but it’s going to be hard for him to live up to those expectations. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fantastic player, and knew he was good with the Dodogers; he just needed that change to get regular playing time. He got that with the Phillies and got him a World Series ring in the process.

(August 5, 2009 – Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America)

Outfielder Michael Morse appears to have gotten a shot to be the everyday left fielder for the team to start the season. In only 266 ABs, he hit 15 home runs and batted in 41. Assuming enough at-bats for an everyday player through out the season, 30 home runs and 90 RBIs aren’t out of the question for him.

None of the options the team has for center field are all that attractive. I think Nyjer Morgan makes the most sense to me, since he can lead off, so I want to assume they’ll go that route. Last I read; however, Rick Ankiel has the inside track to securing the position, which I’m not sure that is the best option for the team. Without Morgan, they have no true lead off hitter. Roger Bernadina is also in the mix for OF time. Ian Desmond is more suited to be the second batter in the lineup behind Morgan.

Youngster Danny Espinosa, who has 15 home run power is slated to take over duties at 2nd base. Desmond should able to build on a pretty decent rookie campaign from last season. Hot shot catching prospect, Wilson Ramos, who was acquired in the Matt Capps trade with the Twins could start to figure in the lineup too with aging Pudge Rodriquez. It’s also possible that Jesus Flores could factor into the catching spot too, but there has been some interest with him going to Houston when Jason Castro was lost for the season.

Potential Lineup  (How I would construct it):

Nyjer Morgan – CF
Ian Desmond – SS
Ryan Zimmerman – 3B
Jayson Werth – RF
Michael Morse – LF
Adam LaRoche – 1B
Pudge Rodriguez / Wilson Ramos – C
Danny Espinosa – 2B
Pitchers Spot

The pitcher’s spot brings up a really good point: The Washington Nationals rotation and bullpen are a giant mess. Livan Hernandez is _NOT_who you want pitching for you opening day. With Steven Strasburg on the shelf all season, and Jordan Zimmerman having his own injuries last season, the team doesn’t have much to work with. The other three pitchers poised to make the rotation are Jason Marquis, John Lannan and Tom Gorzelanny. They will not be able to compete at all with the Phillies, but could give the Braves and Marlins a kind of “run for their money”. They’re a much better hitting team this season, by spending a lot of money, but with out pitching they don’t stand a chance.

Young closer Drew Storen has seemed to lost his spot at closer as well with a horrid spring with an ERA over 11. I saw last that the team has no official closer announced as of yet. We’ll see what happens there. Tyler Clippard could get some time shutting down games of Storen officially loses it.

2011 Fantasy Rankings – Firstbasemen

As I was reading through some of my favorite blogs today I came across a great bit by Jess Coleman at Seamheads.com about Major Leaguers born in August. The article showed that the Majors far and away have more players born in August than any other month, especially among American born players. This made me sad because, well, I was born in August and I missed my calling. Who would’ve known my birth month would’ve been my ticket to the Majors? I kid. But since I never made it, or even tried to make it, I resort to playing softball with my buddies and fantasy baseball, and I do them shamelessly!

I only play in keeper leagues and I love dynasty leagues. My favorite league is my Franchise Fantasy Baseball League. For a deeper rundown check my boy Charlie Nehl’s post about it here. Basically we took a real team in the beginning with their current year’s contract and minor league system and assigned an allotted amount of years to players. The rest became free agents and were open for bidding. We have $210M salary caps and deep rosters that in includes minor leagues and minor league drafts. This is by far my favorite league I have ever done and I base all my rankings off this league’s scoring. Our offensive stats are AVG, OPS, HR, SB, R, and RBI and we start one each at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MIF, CIF, and 4 in OF, and 2 UT.  Also, my rankings at a position do not include versatility. This is where I rank players if I were to play them at the listed position only.

With that, here are my rankings:

Rank	Player	Tier
1	Albert Pujols	1
2	Adrian Gonzalez	2
3	Miguel Cabrera	2
4	Joey Votto	2
5	Prince Fielder	3
6	Mark Teixeira	3
7	Ryan Howard	3
8	Kevin Youkilis	3
9	Adam Dunn	4
10	Justin Morneau	4
11	Kendry Morales	4
12	Buster Posey	4
13	Billy Butler	4
14	Paul Konerko	4
15	Victor Martinez	4
16	Aubrey Huff	5
17	Ben Zobrist	5
18	Carlos Pena	5
19	Mike Napoli	5
20	Derek Lee	5
21	Adam Lind	5
22	Adam LaRoche	5
23	Gabby Sanchez	5
24	Russell Branyan	5
25	Carlos Lee	5
26	Lance Berkman	5
27	Pablo Sandoval	5
28	Luke Scott	6
29	Ike Davis	6
30	James Loney	6
31	Justin Smoak	6
32	Howie Kendrick	6
33	Freddie Freeman	6
34	Dan Johnson	6
35	Michael Cuddyer	6

 

Three I’d Reach For	Reason
Adrian Gonzalez	His move out of Petco and into Fenway I feel equates to .300/.400/.575 with 40 bombs, 100 runs, 100 RBI.
Mike Napoli	Love the park, love the power, love the lineup, love the potential.
Russell Branyan	Always loved the power. Mark it down, if he gets 500 at-bats he will hit 35+ homeruns, but a big if.

  

Three I’ll Let Pass	Reason
Ryan Howard	ISO that has dropped 5 years in a row and BB% that has dropped 4 years in a row.
Aubrey Huff	34 years old and set too many career highs in age 33 season for me to expect a duplicate.
Carlos Lee	Dwindling power, can’t run anymore, and does not get on base enough. Aging poorly.

 

Top 3 Rookie 1B	Reason
Freddie Freeman	Hit .319/.378/.518 as a 20 yr  old in AAA. 1B job is his in ATL.
Eric Hosmer	My #4 prospect in baseball is going to hit and hit and hit.
Brandon Belt	No one doubts his hitting tool but Huff blocks him at 1B. Could get PT in OF.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at his other site Figure Filbert and on twitter at @FigureFilbert

Breakout Candidate: Dexter Fowler

Colorado Rockies centerfielder Dexter Fowler is about to enter his 3rd full season in the Major Leagues. He will be a mere 25 years old Opening Day and will have over 1000 plate appearances and almost 2000 innings in the outfield to his name.

In his first two seasons he has shown moderate success posting a .263/.355/.408 slash-line, 1.9 rWAR, and 2.1 fWAR while never starting more than 105 games in the field. Fowler has a ton of speed but has yet learned how to turn it into great base-stealing (67.8% success) but is an excellent base-runner. Same goes for his defensive ability in center where he a career -18.5 UZR and -15 Rfield but that is not due to lack of range or speed but getting a bad read on a ball causing late jumps. These are things I believe Fowler will learn to overcome in short time.

In fact, most of his negative defense was from his first full season when he posted -16.2 UZR and -12 Rfield. Could be a fluke but I believe due to his athleticism and increased playing time that he is learning the game on the job.

Fowler shows a patient eye, walking in nearly 12% of his plate appearances, something not very common for a young player. He also makes a lot of hard contact and was tied for the 12th highest LD% in all of baseball at 21.6%. Fowler also saw sligth improvements in K% and ISO from 2009 to 2010.

After a horrendous May, Fowler was demoted to AAA where he hit .340/.435/.566 and returned to the Majors in July. From July to the end of the year Fowler hit .288/.369/.466 with 15 doubles, 11 triples, 5 homers, and 7 steals in 328 plate appearances, or almost exactly half of a season. Do I think he can post those numbers over an entire season? I actually do, but I have to be a bit more realistic than that. We would all love to project player’s futures based on 2nd half production. If that were the case Adam LaRoche would be an All-Star every year.

With that, are my breakout projections for Fowler in 2011:

Stat	Total
AVG	.274
OBP	.366
SLG	.420
OPS	.786
Plate App.	625
At-Bats	540
Hits	148
Homeruns	6
Doubles	31
Triples	15
BB	79
SO	146
SB	29
UZR	+0

 

That might not equal a full-blown breakout but that type of season is worth 3.0-3.5 fWAR and for a 25 year old that has never posted above a 1.7 fWAR I will gladly call that a breakout, especially since he has much more room to eclipse those projected numbers. I wouldn’t be shocked if he posted a 5 fWAR season with improved defense.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at his other site Figure Filbert and on twitter at @FigureFilbert